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Market Sizing Analysis

Seth HobsonCommunityCreated by Seth Hobson

  • Skill
  • Research and analysis
  • Business and productivity
  • MIT
  • No issues found

From the author

Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan.
— the description by Seth Hobson

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

Market sizing is a critical component of startup strategy and financial planning. This skill provides a structured approach to estimating market opportunity by utilizing three distinct methodologies: top-down analysis for mature markets, bottom-up analysis for specific customer segments, and value theory for disruptive innovations. It guides users through defining their market, gathering credible data from industry reports and public sources, and applying the appropriate formulas to derive TAM, SAM, and SOM figures suitable for investor pitches and business plans.

What it does

  • Calculates Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM).
  • Provides three distinct methodologies: top-down, bottom-up, and value theory.
  • Offers guidance on selecting the right methodology based on market maturity and innovation type.
  • Includes a framework for defining market scope, target customers, and geographic constraints.
  • Lists credible data sources including industry reports, government statistics, and B2B databases.
  • Supports the creation of investor-ready market analysis and financial projections.

When to use it

  • When validating the market opportunity for a new venture or startup idea.
  • During the preparation of business plans or investor pitch decks.
  • When estimating addressable revenue for a specific product or service.
  • When you need to justify market potential using credible, data-backed methodologies.
  • When entering a new market category where traditional industry reports may not exist.

Advantages

  • Provides a defensible, structured approach to market estimation.
  • Offers multiple methodologies to suit different business stages and market types.
  • Helps align long-term vision with realistic short-term financial projections.
  • Reduces reliance on guesswork by encouraging the use of verifiable data sources.
  • Increases credibility with investors by using standard industry frameworks.

Usage examples

“Help me calculate the TAM for a new AI-powered email marketing tool for North American e-commerce businesses.”
The agent will guide you to define your target segment, identify relevant industry reports for the total market, and apply the bottom-up or top-down formula to estimate your specific addressable market.
“I am building a pitch deck for a disruptive new fintech product. Which market sizing method should I use?”
The agent will recommend the Value Theory methodology, explaining how to quantify the cost of the problem you are solving and the value your solution provides to estimate your market size.

Install

  1. Download the skill as a ZIP:

    https://autogineer.com/agent-skills/wshobson/market-sizing-analysis/download
  2. Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

    mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip market-sizing-analysis.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by Seth Hobson

Market Sizing Analysis

Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.

Overview

Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).

Core Concepts

The Three-Tier Market Framework

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share

  • Defines the universe of potential customers

  • Used for long-term vision and market validation

  • Example: All email marketing software revenue globally

SAM (Serviceable Available Market)

  • Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service

  • Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints

  • Represents realistic addressable opportunity

  • Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years

  • Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics

  • Used for financial projections and fundraising

  • Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape

When to Use Each Methodology

Top-Down Analysis

  • Use when established market research exists

  • Best for mature, well-defined markets

  • Validates market existence and growth

  • Starts with industry reports and narrows down

Bottom-Up Analysis

  • Use when targeting specific customer segments

  • Best for new or niche markets

  • Most credible for investors

  • Builds from customer data and pricing

Value Theory

  • Use when creating new market categories

  • Best for disruptive innovations

  • Estimates based on value creation

  • Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution

Detailed patterns and worked examples

Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.

Files

references/data-sources.md

Market Sizing Data Sources

Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.

Industry Research Reports

Premium Research Firms

Gartner (https://www.gartner.com)

  • Technology market forecasts and sizing

  • Magic Quadrants for competitive positioning

  • Typical cost: $5K-$50K per report

  • Best for: Enterprise software, IT services, emerging tech

Forrester (https://www.forrester.com)

  • Business technology and digital transformation

  • Wave evaluations for vendor comparison

  • Typical cost: $3K-$30K per report

  • Best for: Marketing tech, customer experience, B2B

IDC (https://www.idc.com)

  • IT market intelligence and sizing

  • Detailed segment breakdowns

  • Typical cost: $4K-$40K per report

  • Best for: Hardware, software, IT services

McKinsey (https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights)

  • Free insights and reports

  • Strategic industry analysis

  • Best for: Industry trends, macroeconomic context

Accessible Research

Statista (https://www.statista.com)

  • Cost: $39/month individual, $199/month business

  • Coverage: 80,000+ topics across industries

  • Best for: Quick market size estimates, charts, trends

CB Insights (https://www.cbinsights.com)

  • Cost: Custom pricing (typically $10K+/year)

  • Coverage: Venture capital, startup markets

  • Best for: Emerging markets, competitive intelligence

PitchBook (https://pitchbook.com)

  • Cost: Institutional pricing

  • Coverage: Private company valuations, M&A, VC

  • Best for: Startup valuations, funding trends

Grand View Research (https://www.grandviewresearch.com)

  • Cost: $2K-$5K per report

  • Coverage: B2C and emerging markets

  • Best for: Consumer markets, healthcare, cleantech

Government and Public Data

U.S. Government Sources

U.S. Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov)

  • Free, authoritative demographic data

  • Economic census every 5 years

  • Best for: Business counts, demographics, spending

Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov)

  • Free employment and economic data

  • Industry-specific statistics

  • Best for: Employment trends, wages, productivity

SEC EDGAR (https://www.sec.gov/edgar)

  • Free public company filings

  • 10-K, 10-Q reports with segment revenue

  • Best for: Validating market size with public company data

Data.gov (https://www.data.gov)

  • Free government datasets

  • Aggregates across agencies

  • Best for: Specialized industry data

International Sources

OECD (https://data.oecd.org)

  • Free international economic data

  • Best for: Cross-country comparisons

World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org)

  • Free global development data

  • Best for: Emerging markets, macro trends

Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)

  • Free European Union statistics

  • Best for: European market sizing

Trade Associations

Industry associations often publish market research:

Software & SaaS

  • Software & Information Industry Association (SIIA)

  • Cloud Security Alliance (CSA)

E-commerce & Retail

  • National Retail Federation (NRF)

  • Digital Commerce 360

Financial Services

  • American Bankers Association (ABA)

  • Financial Technology Association (FTA)

Healthcare

  • Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS)

  • American Hospital Association (AHA)

Manufacturing

  • National Association of Manufacturers (NAM)

  • Industrial Internet Consortium (IIC)

Company and Customer Data

B2B Databases

LinkedIn Sales Navigator ($99/month)

  • Company and employee counts

  • Industry filters

  • Best for: B2B customer counting

ZoomInfo (Custom pricing)

  • Company databases with firmographics

  • Contact data

  • Best for: B2B TAM calculations

Crunchbase ($29-$99/month)

  • Startup company data

  • Funding and employee information

  • Best for: Tech startup markets

BuiltWith ($295-$995/month)

  • Technology usage data

  • Website analytics

  • Best for: Technology adoption sizing

Consumer Data

Euromonitor (Custom pricing)

  • Consumer market research

  • Best for: B2C product markets

Nielsen (Custom pricing)

  • Consumer behavior and media

  • Best for: CPG, retail, media markets

Mintel (Custom pricing)

  • Consumer trends and insights

  • Best for: B2C products and services

Search and Discovery Tools

Market Research Aggregators

Research and Markets (https://www.researchandmarkets.com)

  • Aggregates reports from 100+ publishers

  • $500-$10K per report

  • Search across all major research firms

MarketsandMarkets (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com)

  • Custom and syndicated research

  • $4K-$10K per report

  • Good for niche B2B markets

Free Search Tools

Google Scholar (https://scholar.google.com)

  • Free academic research

  • Best for: Emerging technologies, academic validation

SSRN (https://www.ssrn.com)

  • Free working papers

  • Best for: Financial services, economics

arXiv (https://arxiv.org)

  • Free preprints in CS, physics, etc.

  • Best for: AI/ML, scientific markets

Competitive Intelligence

Public Company Analysis

Yahoo Finance (Free)

  • Public company financials

  • Segment revenue from earnings

Seeking Alpha (Free + Premium)

  • Earnings transcripts

  • Analyst estimates

Public company investor relations

  • Annual reports (10-K)

  • Investor presentations

Private Company Intelligence

PrivCo (Custom pricing)

  • Private company financials

  • M&A transaction data

Owler (Free + Premium)

  • Company profiles and news

  • Revenue estimates

SimilarWeb (Free + Premium)

  • Website traffic analytics

  • Best for: Online business sizing

Survey and Primary Research

Survey Tools

SurveyMonkey ($25-$75/month)

  • DIY surveys

  • Best for: Customer willingness to pay

Typeform ($25-$83/month)

  • Conversational surveys

  • Best for: User research

Qualtrics (Enterprise pricing)

  • Professional research platform

  • Best for: Large-scale studies

Panel Providers

Respondent.io ($100-$200 per response)

  • Recruit professionals for interviews

  • Best for: B2B customer research

UserTesting ($49 per participant)

  • User research and testing

  • Best for: Product validation

Google Surveys ($0.10-$3.50 per response)

  • Quick consumer surveys

  • Best for: Basic consumer insights

Data Quality Checklist

When evaluating sources:

Authority

  • [ ] Who published the research?

  • [ ] What's their reputation?

  • [ ] Do they have industry expertise?

Methodology

  • [ ] How was data collected?

  • [ ] What's the sample size?

  • [ ] When was research conducted?

Recency

  • [ ] Is data current (< 2 years old)?

  • [ ] Has market changed significantly?

  • [ ] Are growth rates still applicable?

Consistency

  • [ ] Do multiple sources agree?

  • [ ] Are definitions consistent?

  • [ ] Do numbers triangulate?

Relevance

  • [ ] Does it match your market definition?

  • [ ] Is geography appropriate?

  • [ ] Are segments aligned?

Free vs. Paid Strategy

Start with free sources:

  1. Government data for customer counts

  2. Public company filings for segment revenue

  3. Trade associations for industry trends

  4. Google Scholar for academic research

Upgrade to paid when:

  • Raising institutional funding (investors expect premium sources)

  • Need detailed segment breakdowns

  • Market is niche or emerging

  • Free sources are outdated or insufficient

Cost-effective approach:

  • Buy 1-2 key reports that cover your core market

  • Use free sources for triangulation

  • Supplement with primary research (customer interviews)

  • Cite mix of free and paid sources

Citation Best Practices

Always cite sources in market sizing:

Format:

Market Size: $X.XB
Source: [Publisher], [Report Name], [Date]
URL: [link if available]

Example:

Email Marketing Software TAM: $7.5B (2024)
Source: Gartner, "Market Share: Email Marketing Software, Worldwide, 2024"
Note: Includes all email marketing software revenue globally

Include:

  • Publisher and report name

  • Publication date

  • Geography and scope

  • Any adjustments made

  • Link to source (if public)

Keeping Research Current

Set Google Alerts

  • Industry keywords

  • Company names

  • Market terms

Follow Research Firms

  • Twitter accounts

  • LinkedIn updates

  • Free newsletter summaries

Track Public Companies

  • Earnings calendars

  • Investor relations pages

  • Annual reports

Join Industry Groups

  • LinkedIn groups

  • Slack communities

  • Trade associations

Review Annually

  • Update market size with new data

  • Adjust growth assumptions

  • Revisit methodology if market changed

Emergency Research Guide

Need market size in < 2 hours?

  1. Check Statista (15 min) - Quick industry overview

  2. Find public companies (30 min) - Get segment revenue from 10-Ks

  3. LinkedIn search (20 min) - Count potential B2B customers

  4. Google Scholar (20 min) - Find academic papers

  5. Calculate bottom-up (30 min) - Customers × Price

  6. Triangulate (15 min) - Compare sources

Document everything:

  • Write down all sources

  • Note all assumptions

  • Show your methodology

  • Caveat data quality

Better to have a defensible estimate with clear limitations than no data at all.

Requirements and compatibility

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

Security

No issues found by our static scan· No issues found

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Attribution and licence

Created by
Seth Hobson
Publisher
Seth Hobson (Community)
Source
wshobson/agents · plugins/startup-business-analyst/skills/market-sizing-analysis · commit 4bde316
Licence
MIT License (redistribution allowed)
  • LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE)
  • ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
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