Market Sizing Analysis
Seth HobsonCommunityCreated by Seth Hobson
- Skill
- Research and analysis
- Business and productivity
- MIT
- No issues found
AutoGineer summary
Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author
Market sizing is a critical component of startup strategy and financial planning. This skill provides a structured approach to estimating market opportunity by utilizing three distinct methodologies: top-down analysis for mature markets, bottom-up analysis for specific customer segments, and value theory for disruptive innovations. It guides users through defining their market, gathering credible data from industry reports and public sources, and applying the appropriate formulas to derive TAM, SAM, and SOM figures suitable for investor pitches and business plans.
What it does
- Calculates Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM).
- Provides three distinct methodologies: top-down, bottom-up, and value theory.
- Offers guidance on selecting the right methodology based on market maturity and innovation type.
- Includes a framework for defining market scope, target customers, and geographic constraints.
- Lists credible data sources including industry reports, government statistics, and B2B databases.
- Supports the creation of investor-ready market analysis and financial projections.
When to use it
- When validating the market opportunity for a new venture or startup idea.
- During the preparation of business plans or investor pitch decks.
- When estimating addressable revenue for a specific product or service.
- When you need to justify market potential using credible, data-backed methodologies.
- When entering a new market category where traditional industry reports may not exist.
Advantages
- Provides a defensible, structured approach to market estimation.
- Offers multiple methodologies to suit different business stages and market types.
- Helps align long-term vision with realistic short-term financial projections.
- Reduces reliance on guesswork by encouraging the use of verifiable data sources.
- Increases credibility with investors by using standard industry frameworks.
Usage examples
- “Help me calculate the TAM for a new AI-powered email marketing tool for North American e-commerce businesses.”
- The agent will guide you to define your target segment, identify relevant industry reports for the total market, and apply the bottom-up or top-down formula to estimate your specific addressable market.
- “I am building a pitch deck for a disruptive new fintech product. Which market sizing method should I use?”
- The agent will recommend the Value Theory methodology, explaining how to quantify the cost of the problem you are solving and the value your solution provides to estimate your market size.
Install
Download the skill as a ZIP:
https://autogineer.com/agent-skills/wshobson/market-sizing-analysis/downloadUnzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:
mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip market-sizing-analysis.zip -d .agents/skills
Documentation by Seth Hobson
Market Sizing Analysis
Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities.
Overview
Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay).
Core Concepts
The Three-Tier Market Framework
TAM (Total Addressable Market)
Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share
Defines the universe of potential customers
Used for long-term vision and market validation
Example: All email marketing software revenue globally
SAM (Serviceable Available Market)
Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service
Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints
Represents realistic addressable opportunity
Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)
Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years
Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics
Used for financial projections and fundraising
Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape
When to Use Each Methodology
Top-Down Analysis
Use when established market research exists
Best for mature, well-defined markets
Validates market existence and growth
Starts with industry reports and narrows down
Bottom-Up Analysis
Use when targeting specific customer segments
Best for new or niche markets
Most credible for investors
Builds from customer data and pricing
Value Theory
Use when creating new market categories
Best for disruptive innovations
Estimates based on value creation
Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution
Detailed patterns and worked examples
Detailed pattern documentation lives in references/details.md. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.
Files
- ATTRIBUTION.mdAdded by AutoGineer1014 B
- LICENSELicence file added by AutoGineer1.0 KiB
- SKILL.md2.4 KiB
- examples/saas-market-sizing.md10.5 KiB
- references/data-sources.md9.0 KiB
- references/details.md8.8 KiB
references/data-sources.md
Market Sizing Data Sources
Curated list of credible sources for market research and sizing analysis.
Industry Research Reports
Premium Research Firms
Gartner (https://www.gartner.com)
Technology market forecasts and sizing
Magic Quadrants for competitive positioning
Typical cost: $5K-$50K per report
Best for: Enterprise software, IT services, emerging tech
Forrester (https://www.forrester.com)
Business technology and digital transformation
Wave evaluations for vendor comparison
Typical cost: $3K-$30K per report
Best for: Marketing tech, customer experience, B2B
IDC (https://www.idc.com)
IT market intelligence and sizing
Detailed segment breakdowns
Typical cost: $4K-$40K per report
Best for: Hardware, software, IT services
McKinsey (https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights)
Free insights and reports
Strategic industry analysis
Best for: Industry trends, macroeconomic context
Accessible Research
Statista (https://www.statista.com)
Cost: $39/month individual, $199/month business
Coverage: 80,000+ topics across industries
Best for: Quick market size estimates, charts, trends
CB Insights (https://www.cbinsights.com)
Cost: Custom pricing (typically $10K+/year)
Coverage: Venture capital, startup markets
Best for: Emerging markets, competitive intelligence
PitchBook (https://pitchbook.com)
Cost: Institutional pricing
Coverage: Private company valuations, M&A, VC
Best for: Startup valuations, funding trends
Grand View Research (https://www.grandviewresearch.com)
Cost: $2K-$5K per report
Coverage: B2C and emerging markets
Best for: Consumer markets, healthcare, cleantech
Government and Public Data
U.S. Government Sources
U.S. Census Bureau (https://www.census.gov)
Free, authoritative demographic data
Economic census every 5 years
Best for: Business counts, demographics, spending
Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov)
Free employment and economic data
Industry-specific statistics
Best for: Employment trends, wages, productivity
SEC EDGAR (https://www.sec.gov/edgar)
Free public company filings
10-K, 10-Q reports with segment revenue
Best for: Validating market size with public company data
Data.gov (https://www.data.gov)
Free government datasets
Aggregates across agencies
Best for: Specialized industry data
International Sources
OECD (https://data.oecd.org)
Free international economic data
Best for: Cross-country comparisons
World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org)
Free global development data
Best for: Emerging markets, macro trends
Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)
Free European Union statistics
Best for: European market sizing
Trade Associations
Industry associations often publish market research:
Software & SaaS
Software & Information Industry Association (SIIA)
Cloud Security Alliance (CSA)
E-commerce & Retail
National Retail Federation (NRF)
Digital Commerce 360
Financial Services
American Bankers Association (ABA)
Financial Technology Association (FTA)
Healthcare
Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS)
American Hospital Association (AHA)
Manufacturing
National Association of Manufacturers (NAM)
Industrial Internet Consortium (IIC)
Company and Customer Data
B2B Databases
LinkedIn Sales Navigator ($99/month)
Company and employee counts
Industry filters
Best for: B2B customer counting
ZoomInfo (Custom pricing)
Company databases with firmographics
Contact data
Best for: B2B TAM calculations
Crunchbase ($29-$99/month)
Startup company data
Funding and employee information
Best for: Tech startup markets
BuiltWith ($295-$995/month)
Technology usage data
Website analytics
Best for: Technology adoption sizing
Consumer Data
Euromonitor (Custom pricing)
Consumer market research
Best for: B2C product markets
Nielsen (Custom pricing)
Consumer behavior and media
Best for: CPG, retail, media markets
Mintel (Custom pricing)
Consumer trends and insights
Best for: B2C products and services
Search and Discovery Tools
Market Research Aggregators
Research and Markets (https://www.researchandmarkets.com)
Aggregates reports from 100+ publishers
$500-$10K per report
Search across all major research firms
MarketsandMarkets (https://www.marketsandmarkets.com)
Custom and syndicated research
$4K-$10K per report
Good for niche B2B markets
Free Search Tools
Google Scholar (https://scholar.google.com)
Free academic research
Best for: Emerging technologies, academic validation
SSRN (https://www.ssrn.com)
Free working papers
Best for: Financial services, economics
arXiv (https://arxiv.org)
Free preprints in CS, physics, etc.
Best for: AI/ML, scientific markets
Competitive Intelligence
Public Company Analysis
Yahoo Finance (Free)
Public company financials
Segment revenue from earnings
Seeking Alpha (Free + Premium)
Earnings transcripts
Analyst estimates
Public company investor relations
Annual reports (10-K)
Investor presentations
Private Company Intelligence
PrivCo (Custom pricing)
Private company financials
M&A transaction data
Owler (Free + Premium)
Company profiles and news
Revenue estimates
SimilarWeb (Free + Premium)
Website traffic analytics
Best for: Online business sizing
Survey and Primary Research
Survey Tools
SurveyMonkey ($25-$75/month)
DIY surveys
Best for: Customer willingness to pay
Typeform ($25-$83/month)
Conversational surveys
Best for: User research
Qualtrics (Enterprise pricing)
Professional research platform
Best for: Large-scale studies
Panel Providers
Respondent.io ($100-$200 per response)
Recruit professionals for interviews
Best for: B2B customer research
UserTesting ($49 per participant)
User research and testing
Best for: Product validation
Google Surveys ($0.10-$3.50 per response)
Quick consumer surveys
Best for: Basic consumer insights
Data Quality Checklist
When evaluating sources:
Authority
[ ] Who published the research?
[ ] What's their reputation?
[ ] Do they have industry expertise?
Methodology
[ ] How was data collected?
[ ] What's the sample size?
[ ] When was research conducted?
Recency
[ ] Is data current (< 2 years old)?
[ ] Has market changed significantly?
[ ] Are growth rates still applicable?
Consistency
[ ] Do multiple sources agree?
[ ] Are definitions consistent?
[ ] Do numbers triangulate?
Relevance
[ ] Does it match your market definition?
[ ] Is geography appropriate?
[ ] Are segments aligned?
Free vs. Paid Strategy
Start with free sources:
Government data for customer counts
Public company filings for segment revenue
Trade associations for industry trends
Google Scholar for academic research
Upgrade to paid when:
Raising institutional funding (investors expect premium sources)
Need detailed segment breakdowns
Market is niche or emerging
Free sources are outdated or insufficient
Cost-effective approach:
Buy 1-2 key reports that cover your core market
Use free sources for triangulation
Supplement with primary research (customer interviews)
Cite mix of free and paid sources
Citation Best Practices
Always cite sources in market sizing:
Format:
Market Size: $X.XB
Source: [Publisher], [Report Name], [Date]
URL: [link if available]Example:
Email Marketing Software TAM: $7.5B (2024)
Source: Gartner, "Market Share: Email Marketing Software, Worldwide, 2024"
Note: Includes all email marketing software revenue globallyInclude:
Publisher and report name
Publication date
Geography and scope
Any adjustments made
Link to source (if public)
Keeping Research Current
Set Google Alerts
Industry keywords
Company names
Market terms
Follow Research Firms
Twitter accounts
LinkedIn updates
Free newsletter summaries
Track Public Companies
Earnings calendars
Investor relations pages
Annual reports
Join Industry Groups
LinkedIn groups
Slack communities
Trade associations
Review Annually
Update market size with new data
Adjust growth assumptions
Revisit methodology if market changed
Emergency Research Guide
Need market size in < 2 hours?
Check Statista (15 min) - Quick industry overview
Find public companies (30 min) - Get segment revenue from 10-Ks
LinkedIn search (20 min) - Count potential B2B customers
Google Scholar (20 min) - Find academic papers
Calculate bottom-up (30 min) - Customers × Price
Triangulate (15 min) - Compare sources
Document everything:
Write down all sources
Note all assumptions
Show your methodology
Caveat data quality
Better to have a defensible estimate with clear limitations than no data at all.
Requirements and compatibility
Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta
“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.
Security
No issues found by our static scan· No issues found
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Attribution and licence
- Created by
- Seth Hobson
- Publisher
- Seth Hobson (Community)
- Source
- wshobson/agents · plugins/startup-business-analyst/skills/market-sizing-analysis · commit 4bde316
- Licence
- MIT License (redistribution allowed)
- LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE)
- ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
- Synced
AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by Seth Hobson or Seth Hobson.
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