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Market Sizing

Pawel HurynCommunityCreated by Pawel Huryn

  • Skill
  • Research and analysis
  • Business and productivity
  • MIT
  • No issues found
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From the author

Estimate market size using TAM, SAM, and SOM with top-down and bottom-up approaches. Use when sizing a market opportunity, estimating addressable market, preparing for investor pitches, or evaluating market entry.
— the description by Pawel Huryn

AutoGineer summary

Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author

This skill acts as a strategic market analyst to help users quantify market opportunities. It employs both top-down and bottom-up estimation methods to calculate Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM). The process includes defining market boundaries, forecasting growth over 2-3 years, and documenting the key assumptions and risks underlying the estimates.

What it does

  • Defines market boundaries based on geography, industry, and customer segments.
  • Performs top-down and bottom-up market sizing to triangulate results.
  • Calculates TAM, SAM, and SOM metrics with supporting reasoning.
  • Generates 2-3 year growth projections for market segments.
  • Identifies and maps key assumptions and risks for each estimate.
  • Summarizes findings in a structured table for quick reference.

When to use it

  • When evaluating a new market entry or business opportunity.
  • During the preparation of investor pitches or business plans.
  • When you need to validate the potential scale of a product idea.
  • When assessing how market constraints impact serviceable revenue.

Advantages

  • Uses dual-method triangulation to improve estimate accuracy.
  • Provides a structured framework for consistent market analysis.
  • Forces explicit documentation of assumptions and confidence levels.
  • Includes growth drivers and trend analysis to contextualize data.

Usage examples

“Estimate the market size for a subscription-based pet grooming app in the UK.”
The agent will define the target customer segment, calculate TAM/SAM/SOM using available industry data, and provide a 3-year growth projection with key assumptions.
“Calculate the SOM for a new B2B SaaS tool targeting mid-sized manufacturing firms in Germany.”
The agent will analyze the manufacturing sector, apply bottom-up unit economics, and estimate the achievable market share based on current go-to-market capacity.

Install

  1. Download the skill as a ZIP:

    https://autogineer.com/agent-skills/phuryn/market-sizing/download

  2. Unzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:

    mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip market-sizing.zip -d .agents/skills

Documentation by Pawel Huryn

Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)

Purpose

Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.

Instructions

You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.

Input

Your task is to estimate the market size for $ARGUMENTS within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).

If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.

Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)

  1. Market Definition: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply

  2. Top-Down Estimation: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice

  3. Bottom-Up Estimation: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate

  4. SAM Scoping: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints

  5. SOM Estimation: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity

  6. Growth Projection: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years

  7. Assumption Mapping: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate

Output Structure

Market Definition

  • Problem space and customer need

  • Geographic and segment boundaries

  • Key constraints or scoping decisions

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning

  • Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation

  • Reconciliation of the two approaches

  • Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

  • Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve

  • Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier

  • SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years

  • Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction

  • SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning

Market Summary Table

MetricCurrent Estimate2-3 Year Projection
TAM
SAM
SOM

Growth Drivers & Trends

  • Key factors that could expand or contract the market

  • Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts

  • Emerging segments or adjacent markets

Key Assumptions & Risks

  • Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)

  • Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)

  • How to validate the most uncertain assumptions

  • What would materially change the estimates

Best Practices

  • Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate

  • Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks

  • Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers

  • Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data

  • Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing

  • Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets

  • Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals

  • Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates

Further Reading

Files

SKILL.md

Estimate Market Size (TAM, SAM, SOM)

Purpose

Estimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for a product. Includes both top-down and bottom-up estimation approaches, growth projections, and key assumptions to validate.

Instructions

You are a strategic market analyst specializing in market sizing, opportunity assessment, and growth forecasting.

Input

Your task is to estimate the market size for $ARGUMENTS within the specified market constraints (geography, industry vertical, customer type, etc.).

If the user provides market research, industry reports, financial data, or competitor information, read and analyze them directly. Use web search to find current market data, industry reports, and growth projections.

Analysis Steps (Think Step by Step)

  1. Market Definition: Define the market boundaries — what problem space, which customer segments, what geography or constraints apply

  2. Top-Down Estimation: Start from total industry size and narrow to the relevant slice

  3. Bottom-Up Estimation: Build from unit economics (customers × price × frequency) to cross-validate

  4. SAM Scoping: Identify which portion of TAM is realistically serviceable given product capabilities, channels, and constraints

  5. SOM Estimation: Estimate achievable share in the next 1-3 years based on competitive position and go-to-market capacity

  6. Growth Projection: Forecast how TAM, SAM, and SOM may evolve over the next 2-3 years

  7. Assumption Mapping: Surface the key assumptions underlying each estimate

Output Structure

Market Definition

  • Problem space and customer need

  • Geographic and segment boundaries

  • Key constraints or scoping decisions

TAM (Total Addressable Market)

  • Top-down estimate with sources and reasoning

  • Bottom-up estimate for cross-validation

  • Reconciliation of the two approaches

  • Current TAM value (annual revenue opportunity)

SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)

  • Which portion of TAM the product can realistically serve

  • Constraints: geography, language, channels, product capabilities, pricing tier

  • SAM as percentage of TAM with reasoning

SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)

  • Realistic share achievable in 1-3 years

  • Basis: competitive position, go-to-market capacity, current traction

  • SOM as percentage of SAM with reasoning

Market Summary Table

MetricCurrent Estimate2-3 Year Projection
TAM
SAM
SOM

Growth Drivers & Trends

  • Key factors that could expand or contract the market

  • Technology, regulatory, demographic, or behavioral shifts

  • Emerging segments or adjacent markets

Key Assumptions & Risks

  • Critical assumptions behind each estimate (numbered)

  • Confidence level for each (high / medium / low)

  • How to validate the most uncertain assumptions

  • What would materially change the estimates

Best Practices

  • Always provide both top-down and bottom-up estimates to triangulate

  • Use web search for current industry data, analyst reports, and market benchmarks

  • Cite sources for market data — avoid unsupported numbers

  • Be explicit about assumptions; label estimates vs. data

  • Distinguish between value-based (revenue) and volume-based (users/units) sizing

  • Consider currency and purchasing power parity for international markets

  • Flag where estimates have wide confidence intervals

  • Recommend specific data sources or research to sharpen estimates

Further Reading

Requirements and compatibility

Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta

“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.

Security

No issues found by our static scan· No issues found

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Attribution and licence

Created by
Pawel Huryn
Publisher
Pawel Huryn (Community)
Source
phuryn/pm-skills · pm-market-research/skills/market-sizing · commit 2a12295
Licence
MIT License (redistribution allowed)
  • LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE)
  • ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
Synced

AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by Pawel Huryn or Pawel Huryn.

Download ZIP

The ZIP holds the skill’s files, its licence files and an ATTRIBUTION.md. Download market-sizing.zip