Tao Finetune Kumo Forecast
NVIDIAOfficialCreated by NVIDIA Corporation
- Skill
- Tool integration
- Data and AI
- Apache-2.0
- Medium risk
AutoGineer summary
Written by AutoGineer from the skill’s own files, not by the author
Kumo-Forecast provides a robust framework for multivariate time series forecasting using transformer-based models. It supports standard inference, context-enhanced kNN retrieval (DARR mode) for improved accuracy, and a model-agnostic interpretability framework that generates detailed diagnostic reports. The skill includes fine-tuning capabilities to adapt pretrained models to specific domains, supporting both standard and cross-channel architectures. It is designed for integration with AutoML workflows for hyperparameter optimization.
What it does
- Performs multivariate time series forecasting using transformer-based models.
- Enables DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval) to blend direct predictions with historical context.
- Provides model-agnostic interpretability, including lag-horizon attribution and semantic flow analysis.
- Supports fine-tuning of forecasting heads on custom datasets with optional cross-channel layer adaptation.
- Integrates with AutoML runners for hyperparameter optimization of training and inference parameters.
- Generates diagnostic reports and visualizations for model performance and stability.
When to use it
- When you need to perform multivariate time series forecasting on structured data.
- When you want to improve forecast accuracy by leveraging historical context via DARR.
- When you require interpretability features to understand model predictions and lag-horizon dependencies.
- When you need to adapt a pretrained forecasting model to a specific domain through fine-tuning.
- When you are setting up hyperparameter optimization for forecasting models.
Advantages
- Leverages powerful transformer backbones with pretrained weights.
- Flexible inference modes including standard and context-enhanced retrieval.
- Comprehensive interpretability tools for diagnostic analysis.
- Supports fine-tuning with configurable encoder/embedder freezing.
- AutoML-ready for efficient hyperparameter search.
Usage examples
- “Forecast with Kumo-Forecast using my sensor data.”
- The agent will execute the perform_forecasting function using your CSV data and the default Kumo-Forecast checkpoint to generate a forecast DataFrame.
- “Run DARR mode forecasting with my historical context.”
- The agent will use the provided context_df to build a kNN memory and blend it with the direct model prediction based on your specified alpha and k parameters.
- “Fine-tune Kumo-Forecast on my custom dataset.”
- The agent will initiate a training run using your CSV, adapting the forecasting head to your data while optionally using cross-channel attention.
- “Explain the interpretability features of Kumo-Forecast.”
- The agent will describe how to enable interpretability mode to generate lag-horizon attribution, semantic flow, and trajectory stability reports.
Install
Download the skill as a ZIP:
https://autogineer.com/agent-skills/nvidia/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast/downloadUnzip it into the cross-client skills folder of your project:
mkdir -p .agents/skills && unzip tao-finetune-kumo-forecast.zip -d .agents/skills
Documentation by NVIDIA Corporation
Kumo-Forecast
Transformer-based multivariate time series forecasting using self-supervised pretraining on diverse temporal data. Three inference modes: standard (direct forecast), DARR (context-enhanced kNN retrieval blending), and interpretability (latent trajectory extraction, semantic flow, lag×horizon attribution, trajectory stability, and diagnostic ratios — full explanation bundle with PDF report). Fine-tuning adapts the forecasting head — and optionally the cross-channel layer — to your domain.
Source code: https://github.com/NVIDIA/Kumo-TS Pretrained weights: https://huggingface.co/nvidia/Kumo-Forecast
External dependencies
| Dependency | Purpose | Install |
|---|---|---|
| Python 3.10+ | Runtime | https://www.python.org/downloads/ |
| uv | Package + environment manager | pip install uv |
| CUDA toolkit (optional) | GPU acceleration | https://developer.nvidia.com/cuda-downloads |
| matplotlib (optional) | Interpretability PDF report, heatmap PNG, flow + stability charts | uv add matplotlib |
Credentials
nvidia/Kumo-Forecast is a public repo — no token required for downloading weights.
If you hit a 401/403 (gated access or license not accepted) or a 504 on first download, see the Known pitfalls section.
Quick start
git clone --branch main --single-branch https://github.com/NVIDIA/Kumo-TS Kumo-TS
cd Kumo-TS/Kumo-Forecast
uv sync --group dev
uv pip install -e . # editable install — required for clean sdk.* imports
# Standard inference (auto-downloads weights from HF on first run, no auth needed)
uv run python sdk/quick_example.pyInference
Import and call perform_forecasting from sdk/forecasting.py. It auto-downloads weights,
standardizes input, runs autoregressive rollout for long horizons, and returns a DataFrame
with {target_column}_forecast rows for the requested horizon.
import sys, pandas as pd
sys.path.append("/path/to/Kumo-TS/Kumo-Forecast") # clone Kumo-TS with --branch main
from sdk.forecasting import ForecastingConfig, perform_forecasting
df = pd.read_csv("your_data.csv") # must have timestamp + numeric target column
config = ForecastingConfig(
timestamp_column="timestamp", # parseable datetime column
target_column="target", # primary target to forecast
seq_len=512, # input context length (rows consumed)
forecast_horizon=72, # steps ahead to predict (max 512)
model_horizon=72, # native model horizon; change when using custom weights
standardizer_pkl="standardizer.pkl", # auto-downloaded from HF if missing
ckpt="run8_best_model_cr.pt", # auto-downloaded; see Checkpoints table
)
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=config)
# Returns DataFrame: timestamp | {target_column}_forecast (forecast_horizon rows)
print(results.head())For regular inference, put forecasting arguments in YAML and pass the file as
config. Start from the fully commented
template in sdk/forecasting_inference_config.yaml.
inference:
# Number of historical rows consumed for the input context window.
seq_len: 512
# Number of future rows to predict.
forecast_horizon: 72
# Native horizon used when training the checkpoint.
model_horizon: 72
# Enable cross-channel attention for multivariate forecasting.
use_cross_channel: trueresults = perform_forecasting(df=df, config="sdk/forecasting_inference_config.yaml")The YAML can be flat or use a top-level inference: section inside a larger
TAO/AutoML spec. Unknown keys raise ValueError.
Checkpoints
| File | Mode | Downloaded when |
|---|---|---|
run8_best_model_cr.pt | Default (cross-channel on) | use_cross_channel=True (default) |
moment_head_512_6hr.pt | Standard (no cross-channel) | use_cross_channel=False |
standardizer.pkl | Both | Always |
Set use_cross_channel=False in ForecastingConfig or YAML to use the standard checkpoint:
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=ForecastingConfig(use_cross_channel=False))DARR mode (context-enhanced forecasting)
Supply context_df to enable DARR: the SDK builds a kNN memory from historical windows and
blends direct predictions with retrieved neighbors (alpha * direct + (1 - alpha) * kNN).
context_df = pd.read_csv("historical_data.csv") # needs ≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows
config = ForecastingConfig(
forecast_horizon=72,
alpha=0.2, # 0.2 = 20% direct, 80% kNN (default: 0.01)
k=64, # number of nearest neighbors
temperature=0.05, # kNN softmax temperature
)
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=config, context_df=context_df)Context and input datasets do not need identical columns — the SDK aligns to common features
and warns when columns differ. Both must share timestamp_column and target_column.
Interpretability
Set interpretability=True to activate the Model-Agnostic Interpretability Framework. It produces localized, horizon-specific, time-aware explanations — including lag×horizon attribution, semantic flow, trajectory stability, diagnostic ratios, and (for multivariate inputs) channel-axis attribution and coupling analysis.
For the full parameter reference, output bundle, and component descriptions, see
Kumo-Forecast/README.md.
Fine-tuning
Fine-tune the forecasting head (encoder/embedder frozen by default) on your own time series.
--ckpt-init auto warm-starts from the published Kumo-Forecast checkpoint; --ckpt-init none
trains a fresh head from the base backbone.
cd /path/to/Kumo-TS/Kumo-Forecast
# Without cross-channel (uses moment_head_512_6hr.pt)
uv run python examples/finetune_example.py \
--csv /path/to/timeseries.csv \
--timestamp-col timestamp \
--target-cols target \
--seq-len 512 --forecast-horizon 72 \
--epochs 5 --batch-size 8 --lr 1e-4 \
--output-dir artifacts/finetune_my_data
# With cross-channel layer (uses run8_best_model_cr.pt)
uv run python examples/finetune_example.py \
--csv /path/to/timeseries.csv \
--timestamp-col timestamp \
--target-cols sensor_1,sensor_2,sensor_3 \
--use-cross-channel --cross-channel-heads 8 \
--epochs 5 \
--output-dir artifacts/finetune_cross_channelFine-tuning arguments
| Argument | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
--run-config | — | YAML config from AutoMLRunner ({config_path}). CLI flags override file values. |
--csv | required* | Single CSV split temporally into train/val |
--train-csv | required* | Training CSV (mutually exclusive with --csv) |
--val-csv | — | Validation CSV when --train-csv is used |
--timestamp-col | timestamp | Datetime column to exclude from features |
--target-cols | all numeric | Comma-separated columns to forecast |
--model-name | AutonLab/MOMENT-1-large | Backbone model identifier |
--ckpt-init | auto | auto = published Kumo-Forecast weights; none = fresh head; or path to .pt |
--standardizer-init | standardizer.pkl | Standardizer pickle used when --ckpt-init auto |
--repo-id | nvidia/Kumo-Forecast | HuggingFace repo for auto-download |
--seq-len | 512 | Input context length |
--forecast-horizon | 72 | Steps ahead to predict |
--stride | forecast_horizon | Sliding window stride (None → horizon) |
--val-ratio | 0.1 | Validation fraction when --csv is used |
--test-ratio | 0.0 | Test holdout fraction when --csv is used |
--no-standardize | false | Disable per-dataset standardization |
--epochs | 5 | Training epochs |
--batch-size | 8 | Per-GPU batch size |
--lr | 1e-4 | AdamW learning rate (OneCycleLR scheduler) |
--weight-decay | 0.0 | AdamW weight decay |
--head-dropout | 0.1 | Forecasting head dropout |
--max-norm | 5.0 | Gradient norm clip |
--num-workers | 0 | DataLoader workers |
--seed | 13 | Random seed |
--output-dir | artifacts/finetune | Output directory |
--local-files-only | false | Do not download backbone weights from HuggingFace |
--unfreeze-encoder | false | Train the transformer encoder too |
--unfreeze-embedder | false | Train the patch embedder too |
--use-cross-channel | false | Add cross-channel attention layer |
--cross-channel-heads | 8 | Attention heads in cross-channel layer |
--cross-channel-dropout | 0.1 | Dropout in the cross-channel layer |
--num-gpus | all available | Number of GPUs for DDP fine-tuning; set 1 to force single-GPU |
*One of --csv or --train-csv is required.
Inference with fine-tuned checkpoint
config = ForecastingConfig(
timestamp_column="timestamp",
target_column="target",
seq_len=512,
forecast_horizon=72,
model_horizon=72,
standardizer_pkl="artifacts/finetune_my_data/standardizer.pkl",
ckpt="artifacts/finetune_my_data/best_model.pt",
use_cross_channel=False, # set True if trained with --use-cross-channel
)
results = perform_forecasting(df=df, config=config)Data requirements
| Property | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Rows | ≥ seq_len (default 512) for inference; validation split must also have ≥ seq_len + forecast_horizon rows |
| Columns | timestamp + one or more numeric columns; NULLs filled with zeros automatically |
| Timestamp | Parseable by pandas; no NULLs; uniform frequency inferred from mode of diffs |
| Target | Must be numeric; NULLs filled with zeros |
forecast_horizon | Max 512 steps; beyond model's native 72 triggers autoregressive rollout |
| DARR context | ≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows; must share timestamp + target columns with input |
Output structure
Inference (standard / DARR):
DataFrame: timestamp | {target_column}_forecast (forecast_horizon rows)Fine-tuning (--output-dir artifacts/finetune_my_data):
artifacts/finetune_my_data/
├── best_model.pt # checkpoint with lowest validation MSE
├── standardizer.pkl # normalization statistics for this dataset
├── finetune_metadata.json # model config, channels, best epoch, all args
├── metrics.json # scalar summary: {"val_mse": float, "val_mae": float} — consumed by AutoML runner
└── epoch_metrics.json # per-epoch list: [{epoch, train_mse, val_mse, val_mae}, ...]Hardware
| Tier | Setup | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum | 1× CPU | Functional; slow for long horizons |
| Recommended | 1× NVIDIA GPU (≥8 GB VRAM) | Strongly recommended for fine-tuning |
| Apple Silicon | MPS | Auto-detected; on par with CPU for this workload |
| Multi-GPU fine-tuning | 2+× NVIDIA GPUs | Auto DDP via --num-gpus (defaults to all visible GPUs) |
AutoML (HPO: hyperparameter optimization)
This skill is AutoML-enabled for both fine-tuning and DARR inference. When an HPO request arrives, route it through tao-skill-bank:tao-run-automl with this model's skill_dir.
Read references/automl.md when the user asks for AutoML/HPO setup, tunable parameters, runner examples, inference trial scripts, DARR HPO, or AutoML result handoff details.
Known pitfalls
| Symptom | Cause | Fix |
|---|---|---|
ModuleNotFoundError: backbone | Editable install missing | Run uv pip install -e . from Kumo-Forecast/ |
HfHubHTTPError: 401 / 403 | Model license not accepted or gated fork | Accept license on HF repo page; or huggingface-cli login |
504 / timeout on first weight download | HF CDN throttles unauthenticated requests — public repos are still subject to this on first download | Set export HUGGINGFACE_HUB_TOKEN="$HF_TOKEN" before running; authenticated requests use a more reliable CDN path |
ValueError: DataFrame has X rows but seq_len requires Y | Input too short | Provide ≥ seq_len (512) rows or reduce --seq-len |
ValueError: forecast_horizon must be <= 512 | Horizon too large | Split into multiple perform_forecasting calls |
ValueError: No common numeric columns (DARR) | Context has no overlapping features | Ensure context shares ≥ 1 numeric column with input |
ValueError: Context DataFrame has X rows but requires Y | Context too small | Context needs ≥ seq_len + model_horizon rows |
Interpretability PDF skipped: matplotlib not installed | Missing optional dep | uv add matplotlib or use interpretability_output="json" |
ValueError: No training windows (finetune) | Data too short for windows | Reduce --seq-len / --forecast-horizon, or increase dataset size |
Stale environment errors mentioning backbone package | Old lock file | uv cache clean && uv sync --group dev |
Files
- ATTRIBUTION.mdAdded by AutoGineer948 B
- BENCHMARK.md7.2 KiB
- LICENSELicence file added by AutoGineer11.2 KiB
- SKILL.md13.5 KiB
- config/skillspector-baseline.yaml834 B
- evals/evals.json1.2 KiB
- references/automl.md14.7 KiB
- references/skill_info.yaml1.5 KiB
- references/spec_template_inference_hpo.yaml1.4 KiB
- references/spec_template_train.yaml642 B
- schemas/inference_hpo.schema.json6.0 KiB
- schemas/train.schema.json10.2 KiB
- skill-card.md4.7 KiB
- skill.oms.sig6.2 KiB
Requirements and compatibility
Works with: Claude Code, Claude apps, OpenAI Codex, GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Gemini CLI, Kiro, OpenCode, Goose, Amp, Roo Code, JetBrains Junie, Factory Droid, Devin (ex-Windsurf), Mistral Vibe, OpenHands, Letta
“Works with” means the tool reads the open Agent Skills format; a skill written for one tool may use features others lack.
Needs: Declares allowed tools, Needs a command-line tool, Needs Python
The author says: Requires Python 3.10+ and uv. CUDA GPU recommended; Apple Silicon (MPS) and CPU supported.
Security
What our scanner noticed· Medium risk
- Large base64-encoded blobs
- Instructions that use the network
A static scan is not a guarantee. Skills are third-party content: review a skill before you let an agent use it.
Attribution and licence
- Created by
- NVIDIA Corporation
- Publisher
- NVIDIA (Official)
- Source
- NVIDIA/skills · skills/tao-finetune-kumo-forecast · commit fce3cca
- Licence
- Apache License 2.0 (redistribution allowed)
- LICENSE (added by AutoGineer from LICENSE-APACHE)
- ATTRIBUTION.md (written by AutoGineer)
- Synced
AutoGineer is not affiliated with or endorsed by NVIDIA Corporation or NVIDIA.
Download ZIP
The ZIP holds the skill’s files, its licence files and an ATTRIBUTION.md. Download tao-finetune-kumo-forecast.zip